Il potere è nelle parole

Il potere è nelle parole
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sabato 27 febbraio 2016

A stock market profecy

Not long posts ago I wrote that sometimes is good to read again a book, or some notes, or your diary. What for? Very simple. To remember...
Today is a grey-skyed day, snow is sloppy falling-down... so I've spent some time checking my notes about investing, economy cycles and the stock market. In my files I found this article by Robert Kiyosaki:

Online Exclusive Update - #120 -  August 6, 2012
THE STOCK MARKET IS DEAD - by Robert Kiyosaki -


"I see dead people. The dead people are baby-boomers who are counting on the stock market to provide a safe, long-term retirement. .....
In my book ........... published in 2002, I wrote about the biggest stock market crash in history, a crash that is coming around 2016. Obviously my prediction was a long-term guess but the year 2016 seems to be right on target.
..... I was severely criticized by journalists from publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Money Magazine, and Smart Money. Yahoo Finance dropped me as a contributing writer, simply because I caused too much of a ruckus with their advertisers. It was a gamble stating my prediction, but sometimes a person must say what they must say… even if unpopular.
Today, I am not alone. Bill Gross, ..... on Tuesday, July 29, 2012, he stated that consistent annual returns are a thing of the past. He said, “The cult of equity is dying. ......... investors’ impressions of ‘stocks for the long run’ or any run have mellowed as well.”  
He also said the stock market operates as a Ponzi scheme.... A Ponzi scheme keeps investors happy as long as there is fresh new money entering the market. New investors buy stocks that old investors are selling. The eventual panic and collapse will occur sometime around 2016, when there are no new investor blood transfusions for older dying baby-boomers. It will not be pretty.
..... John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Funds and another investment professional I respect, continues with the “invest for the long-term” mantra, in spite of what Bill Gross says.
The question is, who should you listen to?
......   first invest in financial education. If you are going to invest in the stock market, take “technical investment” courses. Learn how to make money regardless if the stock market is going up or down. Learn to invest with insurance, such as “stops” and “options.” You still have time to take classes, simulate or practice trading with small amounts of money and prepare for the biggest market crash in history.
If I am correct and the stock market begins to collapse around 2016, many professional investors will make a “killing.” Unfortunately, those being killed will be baby-boomers, amateurs and the uneducated. 
This is why I see dead people. Don’t be one of them.
Robert Kiyosaki"

I loved that article when I read it in August 2012 (a time where the italian market, the FTSE MIB, had marked a bottom) while I was on holidays. And today I still love it.... But... today is February 2016 and I would update the 'profecy' that way: 'Market will crash little before, or little after, the US elections so that the next president will have 'to do' something 'very necessary' to solve the problem'. 
It will be not about the markets. It will be about our freedom.
Thank you Robert, you wrote very useful books. 
Happyness
Enzo

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