Maybe the most important 'thing' that happened in the last month ... has been the so-called Brexit. Italianuts, and peoplenuts in general, believe to the nice 'media-story' about aged people votes in the Uk that have overtaken the young people votes... or that leaving the EU will be a disaster for the Uk.
A friend was recently asking to me my opinion about the matter... and he was quite surprised when I just told him that I don't believe a word of what is 'reported' by the media. I simply suggested him to check by himself, from a financial point of view. A kind of 'just follow the money' suggestion. He kept almost astonished.
Well, I understand. At the end, italianuts are more concerned by the next football match against Germany than about 'their' money or the economy.
To me is quite simple: in the night of last june 23rd the news where announcing that 'Bremain' was at 52% and that the markets will go up. But the next morning the news where that it was 'Brexit' at 52%, not 'Bremain'.
And these where the performances of some european markets:
Greece: - 19,67%
Italy: - 12,48%
Spain: - 12,35%
France: - 8,04%
Germany: - 6,82%
Portugal: - 6,57%
Uk: - 3,15%
These data are in order, from the worst to 'the best', if we can say so. Greece? Not a surprise. Italy?? Neither !
Two days later (June 26) this was the news:
Have you noted something? I did. The FT had two different titles between the paper-printed article and the digital one. "Will be" is a kind of certainity, something that will surely happen. It's better to write "May be"... It gives room to a possibility, but it's not sure. (If my english is good enough to properly distinguish the different meaning of these words). But... you can have a certainity: the next dominos to fall will be Italy, Spain and... France. Yes, France also.
So... now you know where to place your short positions. :)
Everyone has already forgot the real matter (if even known): The City won't pay a Financial Transaction Tax (to 'Europe'). Only Italianuts slaves do this (it's called tobin-tax, in Italy). Brexit didn't happen by hazard. And it's an excuse. A kind of financial trigger for the markets. A perfect excuse for the masses.
But... don't worry, be happy.
Just enjoy the football match....
Enzo
